* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 55 49 42 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 63 55 49 42 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 63 58 54 50 44 41 39 38 38 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 32 36 40 37 32 31 26 22 23 35 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 0 0 6 3 5 3 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 226 239 231 230 237 227 229 255 296 321 328 296 260 SST (C) 24.1 23.4 23.1 22.7 22.3 22.1 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.6 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 101 96 94 91 88 85 83 83 84 84 83 84 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 85 82 80 77 73 70 71 72 72 72 73 71 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -56.2 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -54.9 -55.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 42 41 35 29 28 31 32 36 50 48 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 -3 -15 -29 -54 -57 -53 -45 -32 -20 -15 -36 200 MB DIV 38 12 2 12 1 8 18 -2 -3 16 5 18 2 700-850 TADV 12 20 12 -7 2 0 -9 -8 -13 -17 -18 -17 -21 LAND (KM) 1529 1368 1212 1075 941 777 742 691 605 527 451 365 260 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.3 38.1 38.6 39.1 39.1 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.9 39.4 40.1 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 26.3 24.7 23.1 21.6 20.1 18.2 17.8 17.2 16.2 15.3 14.4 13.3 11.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 10 5 2 3 4 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 18 CX,CY: 17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -34. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -21. -28. -37. -45. -52. -59. -64. -68. -71. -73. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/20/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED