* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/20/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 53 48 42 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 53 48 42 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 56 53 50 45 42 40 38 38 37 35 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 34 36 34 32 34 35 29 21 30 43 45 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 -4 2 6 6 7 5 4 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 230 225 229 237 234 227 216 251 293 297 281 256 N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.5 21.1 20.1 19.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 92 89 87 85 84 84 83 82 79 77 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 83 80 77 75 73 73 73 72 72 71 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.1 -55.0 -55.7 -56.3 -56.1 -55.5 -55.4 -55.0 -54.4 -53.9 -53.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 35 29 28 28 33 31 42 45 46 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 13 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 -9 -20 -40 -57 -54 -59 -35 -2 15 41 N/A 200 MB DIV 4 11 19 3 2 14 -4 -11 29 6 25 15 N/A 700-850 TADV 23 8 -8 -8 -14 -4 -22 -23 -28 -25 -21 -36 N/A LAND (KM) 1397 1249 1104 1018 933 820 708 607 493 386 210 123 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.7 38.3 38.7 39.0 39.2 39.3 39.6 40.3 41.2 42.5 44.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 25.0 23.5 21.9 21.0 20.0 18.7 17.4 16.2 14.8 13.4 11.6 9.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 11 8 7 5 5 6 7 8 10 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -23. -31. -41. -48. -55. -58. -62. -65. -64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/20/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/20/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED