* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL082012 08/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 30 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 35 33 32 30 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 39 36 37 33 41 30 13 27 25 39 49 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -3 3 6 6 7 1 4 6 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 228 234 230 226 227 218 240 321 332 292 257 253 N/A SST (C) 22.5 22.2 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.9 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.3 20.3 19.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 86 84 83 83 84 83 83 82 79 77 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 77 74 72 72 71 72 72 72 72 71 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.4 -56.2 -56.4 -56.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.8 -54.8 -55.0 -53.9 -53.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 28 25 25 26 31 28 35 42 46 45 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 9 8 7 3 1 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -13 -33 -41 -48 -44 -59 -43 -25 -3 -4 -32 N/A 200 MB DIV 13 20 -1 17 21 6 -34 12 6 21 -2 16 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -12 -22 -18 -14 -44 -30 -27 -23 -26 -34 -23 N/A LAND (KM) 1029 919 811 760 708 631 553 484 398 332 221 72 N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.4 39.3 39.1 39.2 39.7 40.5 41.7 43.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 21.1 19.9 18.6 18.0 17.4 16.5 15.6 14.8 13.8 12.8 11.5 9.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 7 5 4 4 3 4 5 7 9 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -8. -5. -2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -18. -25. -32. -34. -41. -43. -44. -46. -44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 GORDON 08/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.5/ -0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 42.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.5/ -0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 GORDON 08/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED