* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092012 08/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 58 68 79 86 94 94 98 99 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 58 68 79 86 94 94 98 94 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 49 60 73 86 97 104 105 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 9 7 0 5 2 8 8 8 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 -1 0 1 1 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 7 24 52 355 355 262 301 322 308 235 240 252 262 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 146 149 151 155 152 147 146 147 155 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 148 151 152 156 150 144 142 140 147 150 147 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 60 61 64 63 61 62 66 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 17 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 82 82 89 88 89 90 82 88 90 104 86 87 78 200 MB DIV 44 56 65 93 85 88 70 62 37 64 59 90 40 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -7 -7 -4 -5 -3 -5 -10 0 2 6 12 LAND (KM) 1067 932 792 675 594 468 201 157 123 66 31 65 33 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.5 18.3 19.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.7 55.4 57.1 58.8 62.0 65.0 67.8 70.5 72.8 74.8 76.5 77.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 46 58 65 59 73 60 79 91 81 103 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 38. 49. 56. 64. 64. 68. 69. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 NINE 08/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 NINE 08/21/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)