* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 60 70 75 81 85 85 88 91 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 60 70 75 81 73 80 65 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 57 67 77 86 89 90 76 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 5 7 12 8 8 8 15 10 11 7 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 1 -1 3 -5 1 -7 0 -3 1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 14 40 347 347 326 289 327 306 310 245 262 254 315 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 147 149 152 153 150 146 146 150 156 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 148 149 153 153 148 143 139 142 147 150 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 68 69 69 68 66 68 64 63 63 66 63 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 15 16 17 16 19 17 18 20 18 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 72 78 78 80 82 83 93 83 96 93 96 87 97 200 MB DIV 65 78 83 98 107 76 78 30 33 64 109 67 54 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -8 -6 -6 -4 -7 -4 6 7 8 3 7 LAND (KM) 981 844 721 632 581 412 172 139 81 -6 56 -22 -55 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.8 56.3 57.9 59.4 62.5 65.5 68.3 70.6 72.6 74.3 76.1 77.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 10 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 53 63 62 60 72 61 80 73 84 99 109 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 35. 40. 46. 50. 50. 53. 56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)