* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 54 64 74 82 91 91 96 96 101 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 49 54 64 74 82 91 79 71 48 38 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 48 57 67 79 90 85 80 51 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 11 6 11 4 10 4 5 9 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 3 6 3 0 0 -4 -1 1 1 0 8 SHEAR DIR 357 327 336 332 325 322 308 354 242 211 208 227 296 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 149 152 154 152 146 145 145 154 159 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 149 150 154 155 152 143 138 138 149 150 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 10 9 10 9 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 66 64 62 64 59 64 64 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 19 19 20 22 20 23 20 21 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR 79 78 78 88 93 95 95 104 117 105 109 101 129 200 MB DIV 85 94 102 102 103 82 46 29 76 43 88 58 70 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -7 -7 -6 -4 -2 -13 6 9 6 13 6 LAND (KM) 850 729 637 586 508 209 168 162 55 -4 -47 -39 -23 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.4 18.5 20.4 21.4 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 54.8 56.5 58.1 59.8 61.5 64.7 67.8 70.1 71.9 73.9 76.1 77.6 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 15 13 10 10 12 11 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 54 63 62 68 75 64 77 96 20 99 65 113 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 4. 2. 2. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 29. 39. 47. 56. 56. 61. 61. 66. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)