* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 61 73 80 87 93 96 98 99 100 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 61 73 80 87 73 76 48 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 47 50 55 65 76 89 76 88 55 47 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 9 6 4 3 3 10 10 7 14 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 7 4 -1 6 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 9 SHEAR DIR 339 342 338 351 14 322 335 357 231 197 235 218 231 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 152 154 153 150 146 146 152 159 158 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 152 154 153 147 142 141 145 149 147 144 144 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 65 64 64 61 60 56 60 59 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 19 20 23 20 19 21 21 21 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 78 81 80 89 81 91 97 100 98 105 113 200 MB DIV 83 97 106 86 77 91 27 48 51 83 83 70 51 700-850 TADV -11 -5 -7 -5 -4 0 -2 -9 7 5 6 11 14 LAND (KM) 714 626 575 546 394 146 118 45 33 11 -39 5 74 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.2 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 58.1 59.6 61.2 62.7 65.7 68.3 70.8 73.1 75.1 76.7 78.2 79.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 56 63 61 67 68 76 67 81 59 67 46 80 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 33. 40. 47. 53. 56. 58. 59. 60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/22/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)