* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 59 69 78 85 87 92 94 98 97 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 59 69 78 60 68 48 53 56 47 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 53 61 72 58 75 53 59 69 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 5 7 7 1 8 6 7 12 12 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 7 -2 1 2 0 -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 330 339 304 287 317 265 312 212 271 247 254 215 266 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 153 152 148 146 151 159 159 159 162 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 153 153 150 144 141 144 152 150 147 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -50.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 64 63 59 60 61 63 64 66 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 20 19 20 21 21 22 20 21 23 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 74 78 79 74 77 82 88 97 86 96 79 93 77 200 MB DIV 88 107 103 66 55 67 38 52 21 86 40 29 12 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -6 -10 -7 -5 -4 1 4 9 5 -1 6 LAND (KM) 627 592 493 343 199 91 65 -10 42 -24 65 131 -34 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.6 21.0 22.8 24.3 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 60.1 61.6 63.1 64.6 67.4 70.0 72.4 74.6 76.6 78.3 79.7 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 63 63 69 69 75 71 71 0 76 46 103 98 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 38. 45. 47. 52. 54. 58. 57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/22/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)