* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/22/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 58 69 80 86 91 94 98 99 99 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 58 69 67 74 68 47 50 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 47 51 61 64 74 87 51 54 63 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 4 5 3 4 11 6 16 12 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 -2 4 3 -1 3 -1 -1 -2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 7 290 256 297 9 348 346 220 231 238 189 219 181 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 150 146 147 154 161 159 161 165 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 153 151 149 141 140 147 154 150 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 12 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 63 64 57 60 62 59 63 63 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 19 19 19 21 22 20 20 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 80 82 80 82 93 85 91 98 101 95 106 90 101 200 MB DIV 92 96 61 48 63 30 72 63 110 33 45 32 44 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -6 -9 -4 -6 2 13 4 5 3 5 10 LAND (KM) 570 471 325 192 129 109 -19 28 -6 -44 48 56 45 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.9 21.4 23.1 24.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.9 63.4 64.9 66.4 69.3 71.4 73.5 75.7 77.7 79.5 81.0 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 12 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 61 64 65 72 74 73 59 70 41 66 91 78 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 29. 40. 46. 51. 54. 58. 59. 59. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/22/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/22/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)