* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 48 54 59 71 83 88 96 101 107 106 104 V (KT) LAND 40 43 48 54 59 71 83 86 59 54 60 58 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 48 52 63 75 87 61 54 64 74 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 7 10 2 12 6 8 9 8 16 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 0 5 2 0 -1 -5 1 -1 0 2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 179 292 355 354 352 354 294 298 209 227 194 176 191 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 150 149 147 146 149 159 159 159 164 170 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 150 148 144 140 142 152 151 148 150 152 147 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -50.6 -50.7 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 64 67 66 64 59 61 62 64 65 61 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 18 19 19 20 21 19 21 23 26 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 84 84 93 97 103 107 116 100 108 98 118 103 93 200 MB DIV 124 106 91 89 70 32 52 32 84 53 52 17 30 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -8 -6 -4 -9 1 9 0 8 1 5 5 LAND (KM) 463 322 220 172 171 92 13 63 -39 27 88 77 57 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 18.0 19.3 20.9 22.5 23.8 25.3 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.8 65.3 66.8 68.3 70.7 72.7 74.7 76.7 78.6 80.6 82.1 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 13 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 68 70 72 68 62 70 101 87 46 100 81 48 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 3. 4. 7. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 31. 43. 48. 56. 61. 67. 66. 64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/23/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)