* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102012 08/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 35 40 43 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 35 40 43 49 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 28 28 30 34 39 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 10 12 20 24 15 11 2 11 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 9 13 13 12 7 12 2 4 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 218 244 220 214 244 255 237 218 194 321 8 16 334 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 130 130 129 130 135 141 148 151 157 159 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 130 128 128 126 127 132 138 144 144 149 149 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -53.7 -54.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 54 56 55 52 54 53 54 49 50 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 13 13 11 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 63 52 48 43 40 37 23 13 -2 -19 -46 -64 -75 200 MB DIV 22 36 35 49 49 25 37 6 4 -5 -59 -4 2 700-850 TADV -3 1 6 8 8 24 22 16 23 22 5 11 4 LAND (KM) 1711 1644 1588 1537 1489 1426 1424 1297 1070 856 831 981 1096 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.5 17.7 19.1 20.7 22.5 24.5 27.1 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 40.2 41.4 42.8 44.1 46.7 49.4 52.5 55.8 58.8 61.2 63.8 66.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 14 13 14 15 17 17 16 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 27 20 14 17 23 40 53 43 47 36 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 10. 13. 19. 20. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102012 TEN 08/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102012 TEN 08/23/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)