* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 56 61 70 79 88 92 98 100 103 101 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 56 61 70 77 67 48 52 55 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 50 55 66 76 70 49 53 61 70 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 11 3 4 2 11 7 15 12 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 0 -2 -2 1 -5 -1 -3 -1 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 356 19 5 17 290 173 247 209 225 184 209 153 209 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 146 146 146 154 159 159 160 164 170 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 146 143 142 140 148 152 147 146 148 153 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -50.3 -49.7 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 62 65 66 64 60 58 60 63 63 61 55 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 21 20 20 18 20 21 23 26 27 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 84 91 95 101 91 101 98 95 97 112 97 112 73 200 MB DIV 113 100 84 63 31 86 49 72 49 69 26 46 0 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -4 -3 -4 -1 3 7 8 7 8 6 6 LAND (KM) 377 264 204 178 146 23 53 -26 -10 37 104 63 108 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.5 18.9 20.4 21.7 22.9 24.2 25.7 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 65.0 66.4 67.7 68.9 71.2 73.3 75.5 77.6 79.4 80.8 82.3 83.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 70 71 66 63 61 81 104 96 23 93 69 44 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 30. 39. 48. 52. 58. 60. 63. 61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/23/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 15( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)