* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102012 08/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 41 46 51 51 51 54 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 41 46 51 51 51 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 30 32 36 42 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 7 9 12 14 15 11 7 13 29 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 13 12 8 14 3 2 -3 -1 -3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 212 215 198 230 234 255 239 159 147 37 14 349 324 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 129 129 132 136 145 150 155 159 155 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 126 126 126 128 133 142 145 149 148 139 134 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 52 53 51 53 54 54 52 50 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 14 15 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 15 850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 45 42 37 25 23 10 -5 -33 -33 -51 -38 200 MB DIV 30 32 45 63 41 29 9 17 -18 -47 -19 46 47 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 6 9 18 18 9 12 1 -2 4 5 LAND (KM) 1671 1607 1556 1507 1462 1429 1392 1276 1010 867 899 1116 1070 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.0 17.1 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.1 26.2 28.7 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.3 42.6 43.9 45.2 47.9 50.7 53.7 56.9 60.1 63.3 65.0 65.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 14 16 17 18 18 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 27 21 14 16 22 26 41 53 33 41 34 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 11. 16. 21. 21. 21. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102012 TEN 08/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102012 TEN 08/23/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)