* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 63 69 78 85 93 96 96 93 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 51 63 68 50 39 49 52 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 39 43 51 60 46 36 46 55 64 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 3 7 13 8 10 14 9 15 6 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -5 -2 0 0 -2 -3 1 0 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 8 360 332 327 350 252 272 209 223 196 163 164 193 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 147 149 157 159 159 162 168 170 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 146 145 144 144 144 150 150 148 148 151 151 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -49.7 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 700-500 MB RH 66 68 70 65 65 63 62 63 60 59 54 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 19 19 18 20 19 20 21 25 25 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 87 90 91 85 88 108 91 97 88 107 96 92 70 200 MB DIV 90 87 79 47 49 87 56 65 37 54 17 4 12 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -3 -6 -7 2 6 3 9 2 8 7 4 LAND (KM) 311 250 202 179 156 19 71 -51 -23 38 67 100 147 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.9 18.0 19.4 20.7 22.0 23.3 24.7 26.2 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 66.0 67.1 68.5 69.8 72.4 74.4 76.4 78.4 80.2 81.6 83.0 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 70 66 61 60 64 96 77 79 92 101 73 37 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 28. 34. 43. 50. 58. 61. 61. 58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/23/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)