* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102012 08/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 42 46 51 58 58 58 58 59 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 42 46 51 58 58 58 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 39 38 40 44 52 60 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 13 12 9 24 7 12 12 14 33 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 12 14 18 3 9 -3 -2 0 -6 4 2 SHEAR DIR 223 190 211 215 196 216 194 167 38 8 4 329 311 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 129 131 135 142 148 153 160 155 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 124 125 127 132 138 143 148 153 140 127 125 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 55 51 53 52 48 50 55 54 51 50 51 57 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 13 13 14 13 14 11 13 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 47 39 43 23 23 1 -15 -38 -54 -70 -63 200 MB DIV 40 64 49 28 26 42 29 -6 9 -49 25 24 28 700-850 TADV 10 10 12 16 16 20 14 18 6 0 3 5 8 LAND (KM) 1607 1566 1524 1490 1470 1479 1330 1094 892 909 1130 1140 1155 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 18.3 19.7 21.2 23.2 25.7 28.6 30.5 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.9 44.1 45.4 46.6 49.6 52.7 55.7 58.9 61.8 64.5 65.2 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 16 16 17 18 18 14 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 26 20 15 20 36 51 25 43 37 26 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -2. -6. -5. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. 16. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102012 TEN 08/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102012 TEN 08/23/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)