* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 54 61 71 79 86 89 93 95 91 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 54 60 56 41 44 47 51 53 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 43 47 55 54 40 42 51 62 71 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 6 7 5 11 8 7 6 9 11 10 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 2 3 10 5 SHEAR DIR 14 108 291 308 337 248 232 226 113 177 95 139 156 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.1 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 146 156 161 159 160 163 169 172 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 143 142 142 150 153 148 147 147 152 153 147 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.2 -50.0 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 9 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 64 66 62 59 62 61 63 62 59 60 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 17 17 19 17 19 22 21 22 24 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 89 91 85 89 92 86 92 86 102 87 97 62 84 200 MB DIV 79 67 42 46 86 64 73 61 66 -5 50 19 18 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -10 -13 -7 4 3 11 6 5 7 9 7 LAND (KM) 226 201 169 132 15 19 -23 -55 7 97 104 142 133 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.7 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 26.7 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.7 69.0 70.3 71.5 73.8 75.9 77.9 79.6 81.1 82.4 83.9 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 65 60 60 69 88 66 99 101 78 79 52 37 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 19. 26. 36. 44. 51. 54. 58. 60. 56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/23/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)