* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102012 08/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 43 46 51 57 62 64 65 63 67 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 43 46 51 57 62 64 65 63 67 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 40 41 43 46 53 61 66 67 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 5 9 11 13 13 4 13 23 18 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 18 17 10 4 0 3 -3 0 3 6 -3 SHEAR DIR 211 205 193 147 178 229 122 56 20 1 328 268 258 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 128 130 132 136 145 150 156 157 153 150 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 124 126 128 133 142 145 147 142 134 132 124 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -51.7 -51.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 47 47 45 51 51 51 51 53 57 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 15 15 15 16 17 19 17 21 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 48 46 28 24 5 -23 -43 -63 -70 -79 -62 200 MB DIV 63 62 38 45 9 12 52 -11 -19 -4 57 26 46 700-850 TADV 8 13 16 10 12 15 10 13 0 2 14 15 20 LAND (KM) 1624 1577 1532 1515 1513 1473 1295 1061 962 1066 1261 1267 1061 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.7 19.1 20.7 22.8 25.0 27.4 29.6 32.1 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.1 43.5 44.8 46.1 47.4 50.3 53.6 56.7 59.8 62.1 63.4 62.7 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 16 18 18 17 14 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 24 17 17 23 40 41 40 39 33 28 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 16. 22. 27. 29. 30. 28. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102012 JOYCE 08/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102012 JOYCE 08/23/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)