* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102012 08/24/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 31 36 40 45 45 47 52 53 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 31 36 40 45 45 47 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 26 25 25 26 29 32 34 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 20 22 11 11 8 18 29 28 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 15 9 5 9 0 1 0 3 4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 186 185 166 178 211 192 151 67 8 351 296 276 280 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 132 135 141 148 152 154 151 149 143 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 127 127 131 140 144 142 140 134 128 122 116 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 46 48 45 44 51 53 55 51 54 57 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 37 19 8 2 -38 -58 -87 -107 -100 -81 -71 200 MB DIV 37 22 19 24 -6 31 -5 -14 -62 15 21 32 7 700-850 TADV 12 18 16 28 26 20 33 14 0 8 14 12 20 LAND (KM) 1610 1579 1569 1570 1575 1459 1163 1052 1089 1263 1305 1164 1129 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.9 20.7 23.0 25.1 27.1 29.3 31.8 33.6 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 44.6 46.0 47.4 48.7 52.0 55.7 58.6 60.9 62.1 62.5 61.1 58.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 15 14 16 19 19 15 13 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 26 20 15 29 50 42 41 33 28 37 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):303/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 10. 15. 15. 17. 22. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102012 JOYCE 08/24/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102012 JOYCE 08/24/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)