* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 56 60 70 79 90 92 94 92 88 85 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 56 56 53 41 42 43 45 44 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 47 52 52 50 40 40 47 55 64 71 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 3 9 17 7 17 7 14 13 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 1 4 -1 -2 0 0 4 -2 2 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 334 335 301 251 263 268 215 157 212 143 144 153 189 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 151 158 162 160 163 170 171 171 169 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 143 146 153 155 150 150 155 160 153 145 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -50.0 -49.1 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 61 64 63 63 58 49 47 43 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 21 19 21 23 26 27 28 27 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 93 98 99 101 99 93 96 106 101 99 91 108 100 200 MB DIV 66 75 106 80 69 104 51 74 -25 28 -11 33 12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 12 0 4 8 18 7 5 6 5 3 6 LAND (KM) 231 106 72 16 22 -36 -37 26 193 263 273 173 66 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.7 20.2 21.9 23.3 24.7 26.0 27.4 28.6 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.9 72.1 73.3 74.4 76.7 79.0 81.1 83.1 84.9 86.4 87.6 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 68 97 84 90 102 110 99 46 41 36 38 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 30. 39. 50. 52. 54. 52. 48. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/24/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)