* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102012 08/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 28 32 35 39 41 40 40 46 44 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 28 32 35 39 41 40 40 46 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 26 25 25 27 29 31 31 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 13 16 11 5 5 10 30 30 30 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 14 12 8 7 9 4 -2 2 2 5 5 -8 SHEAR DIR 197 209 181 210 229 213 292 359 8 357 322 291 325 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 132 134 137 144 150 156 157 152 150 142 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 129 131 134 141 144 148 142 133 132 127 120 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 46 46 42 40 45 48 50 51 53 56 62 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 8 8 9 11 10 9 9 9 9 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 12 3 -2 -25 -63 -85 -108 -122 -116 -72 -29 200 MB DIV 7 12 28 19 27 14 -24 -28 -37 -4 6 44 28 700-850 TADV 14 11 18 16 8 16 14 13 7 3 18 37 27 LAND (KM) 1572 1558 1561 1571 1523 1326 1109 1025 1085 1237 1195 1072 1058 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.6 21.6 23.7 25.8 27.9 30.1 32.5 34.8 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.7 47.0 48.6 50.1 53.5 56.7 59.9 63.1 64.3 63.4 60.1 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 18 19 18 18 14 12 15 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 23 15 16 38 45 48 39 25 28 9 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 5. 9. 11. 10. 10. 16. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102012 JOYCE 08/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102012 JOYCE 08/24/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)