* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 63 69 77 87 91 90 90 87 81 75 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 56 66 48 48 52 51 51 48 43 36 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 60 65 66 50 46 53 61 69 74 76 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 12 14 11 12 12 16 9 15 17 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -3 0 0 3 0 6 4 11 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 318 287 278 261 264 221 207 172 155 134 157 189 220 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.3 29.9 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 148 155 160 162 159 164 172 172 167 156 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 145 153 157 154 148 149 156 159 146 130 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -51.5 -51.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 10 8 10 6 700-500 MB RH 70 67 63 63 60 61 59 56 49 47 45 39 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 17 20 22 26 25 23 25 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 101 100 105 98 88 89 87 96 81 77 83 76 94 200 MB DIV 94 116 86 59 65 65 62 18 6 37 -4 10 19 700-850 TADV -1 12 4 2 6 11 16 2 2 5 6 1 4 LAND (KM) 216 111 93 -5 67 -22 30 101 164 228 154 84 28 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.3 19.2 20.9 22.7 24.0 25.0 26.4 28.5 29.7 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.5 72.5 73.7 74.9 77.5 79.3 81.0 83.0 84.7 86.2 86.9 87.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 15 15 13 12 10 10 11 9 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 57 84 101 37 87 78 96 67 44 43 35 31 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 5. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 13. 19. 27. 37. 41. 40. 40. 37. 31. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/24/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)