* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102012 08/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 37 43 46 46 46 48 51 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 37 43 46 46 46 48 51 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 30 32 36 40 41 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 10 4 3 9 18 30 31 21 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 7 6 9 3 2 0 1 -2 3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 204 202 219 223 240 172 36 20 19 352 332 326 326 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 134 139 143 148 153 159 154 152 149 140 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 130 132 137 140 144 146 148 138 132 132 129 121 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 45 41 42 45 47 54 54 51 51 55 56 59 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 9 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 20 10 6 -5 -11 -34 -53 -82 -102 -128 -120 -92 -8 200 MB DIV -3 16 15 27 18 -19 -5 -50 -39 6 34 24 29 700-850 TADV 15 17 16 10 17 15 19 5 9 3 10 15 23 LAND (KM) 1591 1564 1544 1480 1407 1134 917 948 1122 1212 1181 1068 956 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.5 20.3 22.1 23.9 26.1 28.4 30.7 32.8 35.3 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.4 47.1 48.7 50.5 52.3 55.6 59.2 61.8 63.8 64.2 63.1 59.0 52.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 19 18 18 17 15 13 11 16 25 29 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 20 26 33 56 32 43 41 24 33 12 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 5. 1. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 16. 16. 16. 18. 21. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102012 JOYCE 08/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102012 JOYCE 08/24/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)