* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 75 84 91 92 94 90 85 77 70 V (KT) LAND 55 61 57 68 56 41 47 48 50 46 40 33 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 60 71 61 43 47 54 62 68 72 73 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 14 7 11 12 9 15 12 13 19 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -3 -2 3 0 3 3 1 2 8 1 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 3 296 267 267 229 218 199 204 167 178 206 246 251 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.7 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 155 161 162 159 160 168 172 171 163 152 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 153 159 156 149 147 153 156 151 140 129 119 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -49.5 -49.6 -49.6 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 10 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 59 61 65 62 56 54 50 52 40 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 21 19 20 24 26 26 27 26 26 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 88 96 84 80 86 85 97 95 90 70 93 86 91 200 MB DIV 112 99 61 67 89 94 86 -7 36 30 1 27 19 700-850 TADV 12 4 19 18 14 16 10 5 7 12 7 4 2 LAND (KM) 88 60 -6 50 -44 -34 18 104 170 221 90 4 -156 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.8 23.1 24.5 25.9 27.4 28.9 30.4 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.5 73.6 75.0 76.3 78.5 80.2 81.9 83.7 85.0 85.6 86.2 86.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 16 14 12 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 83 105 0 87 82 93 72 57 37 37 29 8 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 29. 36. 37. 39. 35. 30. 22. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/24/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)