* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 68 73 82 88 92 92 86 82 75 68 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 55 47 50 56 60 60 54 50 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 56 47 47 54 62 69 73 74 48 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 15 13 9 10 11 13 6 17 13 20 18 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 0 3 0 0 6 2 10 2 10 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 304 277 294 269 276 248 204 184 160 184 207 241 243 SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.2 29.9 29.2 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 154 159 161 160 159 166 169 171 167 154 147 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 151 156 157 153 149 151 152 153 145 130 122 114 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -50.9 -50.7 -49.9 -50.0 -49.3 -49.5 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 4 8 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 62 63 64 65 59 55 56 53 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 18 18 20 23 25 27 27 25 25 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 97 89 93 101 101 95 107 89 83 75 83 72 68 200 MB DIV 97 82 97 122 126 54 50 30 43 -15 26 5 18 700-850 TADV 12 14 21 22 19 30 10 15 12 3 3 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 70 0 80 -38 -26 37 100 123 171 167 32 -81 -196 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.7 24.2 25.4 26.7 28.2 29.9 31.1 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 73.2 74.4 75.7 77.0 79.2 81.2 82.8 84.2 85.2 85.8 85.8 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 14 12 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 98 25 75 95 10 104 66 43 41 29 22 21 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 4. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 33. 37. 37. 31. 27. 20. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/25/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)