* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/25/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 66 70 80 84 90 88 86 85 80 71 V (KT) LAND 55 58 51 58 62 72 76 82 80 78 65 40 31 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 51 55 59 67 76 83 88 91 77 44 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 9 10 9 11 7 11 6 3 19 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 4 0 13 8 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 268 301 262 259 236 197 206 157 230 245 258 248 281 SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.0 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 159 161 159 159 165 170 170 170 164 151 140 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 157 157 154 152 152 153 149 148 142 128 115 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -50.8 -50.3 -49.9 -49.2 -48.8 -48.2 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 6 3 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 65 62 67 60 61 56 60 46 43 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 20 21 21 24 24 28 26 24 26 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 79 87 98 98 84 101 85 84 55 85 79 93 72 200 MB DIV 85 87 123 140 97 65 7 18 12 19 20 26 10 700-850 TADV 13 19 13 12 13 11 2 12 10 3 8 -1 8 LAND (KM) 2 57 -15 29 45 111 68 122 201 107 -33 -166 -238 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.3 20.5 21.5 22.4 24.0 25.4 26.5 27.4 28.8 30.8 32.0 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.9 75.0 76.4 77.8 80.3 82.1 83.6 84.8 85.8 86.4 86.4 85.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 16 15 12 10 8 7 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 101 80 13 65 98 88 49 38 36 31 25 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 5. 2. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 25. 29. 35. 33. 31. 30. 25. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/25/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/25/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)