* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 53 57 61 71 75 83 87 86 85 82 73 V (KT) LAND 50 50 53 57 61 71 75 83 87 86 48 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 50 52 55 62 71 80 87 88 49 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 9 10 7 5 7 3 5 7 11 14 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 2 5 3 2 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 290 267 264 241 296 187 326 120 282 231 276 249 298 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 159 162 166 169 170 163 152 145 136 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 152 151 152 150 151 150 141 128 119 112 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.1 -49.9 -48.7 -48.9 -47.9 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 9 5 7 1 700-500 MB RH 62 66 68 65 70 68 65 62 60 59 51 45 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 24 23 27 29 27 28 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 81 94 98 83 90 94 77 70 59 77 83 92 87 200 MB DIV 89 145 138 88 50 47 0 22 14 13 23 19 2 700-850 TADV 22 16 17 13 10 2 5 6 6 1 8 2 5 LAND (KM) 20 3 52 71 112 40 68 135 100 9 -105 -207 -313 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.3 24.8 25.8 27.2 28.8 30.2 31.3 32.3 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.7 74.9 76.1 77.4 78.7 80.8 82.4 84.0 85.3 85.9 85.7 85.7 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 10 9 10 8 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 76 35 59 92 105 52 44 35 28 11 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 4. 8. 10. 8. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 25. 33. 37. 36. 35. 32. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)