* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 55 59 64 70 79 84 87 86 84 77 67 V (KT) LAND 50 51 55 59 64 70 79 84 87 70 42 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 55 58 66 75 84 89 74 43 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 6 6 5 2 7 9 19 21 29 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 1 -1 0 -3 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 265 235 244 264 208 275 323 334 245 266 230 267 274 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.5 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 162 165 170 171 171 160 150 140 131 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 152 150 152 153 153 152 149 137 126 115 106 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.3 -50.8 -49.8 -49.5 -48.1 -47.8 -47.3 -47.7 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 8 6 7 2 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 66 68 63 66 62 68 61 59 54 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 24 26 30 32 34 35 34 32 27 850 MB ENV VOR 95 99 88 98 97 84 83 51 86 86 115 79 79 200 MB DIV 147 121 82 54 58 17 45 -2 36 16 67 24 40 700-850 TADV 15 13 15 10 5 4 10 9 8 16 4 17 16 LAND (KM) 11 37 49 83 111 104 163 223 80 -35 -180 -267 -291 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.0 25.3 26.4 27.7 29.3 30.8 32.1 32.9 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.3 76.6 77.9 79.2 80.4 82.5 84.0 85.2 86.1 86.6 86.7 86.5 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 10 8 9 9 7 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 61 69 99 99 78 46 40 33 29 24 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 18 CX,CY: -13/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 11. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 14. 20. 29. 34. 37. 36. 34. 27. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/25/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)