* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/26/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 59 63 68 77 82 85 80 78 72 63 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 59 63 68 77 82 85 65 40 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 56 59 67 75 81 84 70 41 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 8 11 10 4 9 1 5 11 22 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -2 -1 3 -1 3 3 5 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 247 246 235 189 191 195 158 181 237 304 253 284 288 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.0 28.2 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 165 168 171 171 166 157 150 138 129 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 151 152 154 155 151 142 131 126 114 105 100 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -49.8 -49.6 -49.0 -49.3 -48.7 -49.5 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 6 8 4 7 1 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 66 65 61 66 65 63 56 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 21 24 26 25 30 32 33 28 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 93 89 97 99 101 76 64 61 85 80 76 30 -3 200 MB DIV 133 89 53 65 48 16 16 5 30 10 16 1 21 700-850 TADV 11 15 17 8 4 8 15 1 5 4 -5 9 23 LAND (KM) 37 46 83 111 82 172 226 149 71 -28 -192 -296 -376 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.0 24.6 25.8 27.2 28.4 29.5 30.7 32.2 33.1 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 78.1 79.4 80.6 81.7 83.6 85.0 85.8 86.1 86.1 85.9 85.6 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 75 97 93 68 49 40 38 35 30 23 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 10. 11. 6. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 27. 32. 35. 30. 28. 22. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/26/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/26/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)