* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/26/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 55 58 61 69 73 82 83 78 73 68 56 V (KT) LAND 50 51 55 58 61 69 73 82 83 54 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 55 58 66 74 80 83 57 36 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 9 9 11 6 2 2 2 12 11 25 23 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 3 1 4 0 7 2 2 3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 251 251 192 188 215 105 239 2 294 282 294 299 318 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 165 168 170 171 170 160 153 148 139 129 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 153 153 153 156 147 134 127 123 115 107 100 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.1 -50.1 -49.6 -48.6 -49.4 -48.9 -49.0 -49.4 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 8 5 7 3 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 65 61 65 60 67 64 61 53 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 24 26 26 30 28 34 34 29 28 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 91 96 97 100 81 81 53 78 68 84 36 3 -90 200 MB DIV 85 54 69 61 47 24 4 46 -8 33 -11 12 10 700-850 TADV 10 15 12 6 9 13 5 -5 6 0 9 6 12 LAND (KM) 67 89 104 84 137 212 195 125 42 -68 -190 -322 -480 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.3 26.6 28.0 29.1 30.1 31.1 32.2 33.4 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 79.5 80.8 81.9 82.9 84.6 85.9 86.5 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.3 85.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 9 8 5 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 97 92 55 49 45 43 35 33 21 23 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 5. 11. 10. 6. 4. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 11. 19. 23. 32. 33. 28. 23. 18. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/26/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/26/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)