* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/26/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 64 67 75 78 89 89 83 78 69 57 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 64 67 75 78 89 72 44 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 64 68 76 83 89 76 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 8 5 8 1 8 12 12 20 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 0 -2 4 1 3 -1 0 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 226 195 181 169 104 123 230 248 293 272 312 293 315 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.6 27.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 170 172 172 171 169 164 158 151 143 132 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 157 159 159 154 144 137 131 123 117 109 100 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -49.5 -49.5 -48.3 -48.6 -47.9 -48.6 -48.8 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 9 6 9 4 8 1 7 3 700-500 MB RH 69 71 65 59 59 57 60 55 52 52 57 60 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 24 26 27 27 31 29 35 36 31 32 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 93 102 103 83 78 67 78 87 87 76 33 -4 -56 200 MB DIV 59 76 63 49 10 32 1 25 3 -4 3 27 22 700-850 TADV 11 15 3 5 4 7 -1 4 3 0 8 20 13 LAND (KM) 67 103 147 186 222 267 178 88 -22 -117 -211 -306 -427 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.4 26.1 27.4 28.5 29.6 30.6 31.5 32.3 33.3 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 81.3 82.5 83.5 84.5 86.2 87.6 88.3 88.5 88.8 89.2 89.1 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 9 7 5 5 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 88 48 46 33 35 31 39 33 14 14 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 12. 12. 7. 7. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 23. 34. 34. 28. 23. 14. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/26/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/26/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)