* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 56 61 64 73 82 87 86 82 75 65 55 V (KT) LAND 50 52 56 61 64 73 82 87 72 43 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 58 62 71 81 88 78 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 7 6 6 5 1 13 15 23 13 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 4 0 -1 2 -1 6 -2 -1 -2 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 203 192 163 73 114 134 60 320 262 288 293 298 297 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.5 27.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 172 171 171 170 170 166 162 151 141 131 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 155 159 160 161 152 144 140 135 124 115 107 99 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.3 -50.0 -48.9 -48.7 -48.1 -48.5 -48.5 -49.0 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 7 9 7 9 6 8 3 7 4 8 700-500 MB RH 69 65 59 60 63 58 62 54 56 55 63 62 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 26 27 27 31 34 36 36 34 30 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 101 100 82 83 86 66 86 83 85 37 31 -31 -27 200 MB DIV 77 71 46 33 23 17 46 -16 7 -3 48 8 42 700-850 TADV 12 0 0 4 5 5 -4 4 0 11 3 20 17 LAND (KM) 77 155 242 276 330 279 140 40 -14 -138 -227 -335 -452 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.5 25.0 25.6 26.2 27.5 28.4 29.4 30.5 31.6 32.4 33.4 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.7 83.9 84.8 85.7 87.1 88.1 88.8 89.2 89.5 89.6 89.6 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 8 6 6 6 5 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 58 48 29 31 44 31 48 45 18 14 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 3. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 14. 23. 32. 37. 36. 32. 25. 15. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/26/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)