* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 64 69 75 80 78 78 73 65 55 47 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 64 69 75 80 78 63 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 59 63 67 75 82 86 72 43 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 9 7 8 12 6 6 11 18 17 13 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 4 1 0 5 1 -1 -3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 193 195 147 138 140 119 170 298 266 335 315 347 337 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.5 27.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 172 172 172 171 170 169 165 162 154 142 130 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 157 162 163 160 150 143 137 134 126 116 107 100 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -50.3 -50.0 -49.7 -49.2 -49.5 -48.8 -49.5 -49.0 -50.1 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 9 9 6 9 5 9 3 8 4 10 700-500 MB RH 66 62 63 64 61 64 64 61 62 63 64 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 27 27 31 32 34 29 30 28 22 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 102 90 88 88 74 72 75 69 43 18 -15 -54 -56 200 MB DIV 75 49 35 67 32 14 20 17 29 17 23 11 42 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 13 10 -2 2 2 2 10 13 0 21 LAND (KM) 101 190 278 333 382 205 93 53 -22 -117 -227 -335 -437 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.6 25.1 25.8 26.4 27.8 28.8 29.7 30.5 31.4 32.4 33.4 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.6 84.6 85.6 86.5 87.8 88.4 88.9 89.4 89.7 89.6 89.6 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 53 36 30 47 52 39 51 28 19 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 2. 3. 0. -5. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 25. 23. 23. 18. 10. 0. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/27/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/27/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)