* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/27/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 62 66 74 80 79 77 71 61 53 47 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 62 66 74 75 62 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 56 60 64 74 68 66 39 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 3 10 8 10 3 13 6 18 13 21 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 3 2 -3 6 -1 0 0 -2 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 203 159 127 128 131 308 287 271 293 302 307 319 305 SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.3 28.2 27.2 26.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 171 170 169 166 155 138 125 114 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 161 163 162 155 147 141 138 128 114 104 95 88 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.1 -49.3 -49.4 -48.6 -48.8 -48.8 -49.1 -49.8 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 9 6 9 4 7 4 8 4 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 61 58 62 58 55 51 56 59 68 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 26 29 30 32 33 30 29 25 20 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 78 77 85 67 57 85 68 60 26 9 -59 -50 -75 200 MB DIV 44 31 57 62 10 29 12 30 10 37 6 32 49 700-850 TADV 6 5 6 6 6 -2 6 -1 13 2 24 21 13 LAND (KM) 229 278 337 348 250 65 1 6 -114 -253 -398 -561 -735 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.7 29.5 30.3 31.4 32.6 33.9 35.4 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.7 85.7 86.6 87.5 88.8 89.5 90.0 90.4 90.8 91.0 91.0 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 7 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 54 39 32 61 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 3. 2. -2. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 30. 29. 27. 21. 11. 3. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/27/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/27/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)