* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/27/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 70 78 77 79 76 69 57 47 40 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 66 70 64 45 33 29 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 61 65 69 65 47 33 29 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 7 4 1 14 16 12 16 21 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 4 3 -3 4 4 0 -5 2 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 184 125 127 133 64 291 332 281 304 279 328 299 291 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.6 28.8 27.6 25.9 24.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 171 171 170 167 159 147 131 113 102 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 162 159 154 149 143 138 131 121 110 96 87 82 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.2 -49.1 -48.6 -49.4 -48.8 -49.7 -49.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 9 4 9 3 8 3 10 2 700-500 MB RH 65 63 59 59 63 60 58 57 62 61 63 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 30 29 31 32 29 29 29 24 20 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 79 85 75 67 83 81 54 38 9 -29 -80 -58 -55 200 MB DIV 30 54 63 11 1 31 9 20 13 26 8 50 30 700-850 TADV 7 4 5 4 -2 3 4 2 6 17 18 56 12 LAND (KM) 264 334 314 209 102 -3 -21 -101 -196 -351 -578 -775 -980 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.5 29.5 30.3 31.0 31.9 33.3 35.3 37.2 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.9 86.9 87.7 88.5 89.6 90.5 90.9 91.2 91.6 92.2 92.0 90.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 6 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 50 29 37 58 45 36 35 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 1. 2. 1. -4. -8. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 22. 24. 21. 14. 2. -8. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/27/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/27/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)