* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 72 77 81 80 78 72 62 53 46 38 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 72 77 69 45 33 29 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 70 74 77 72 47 33 29 27 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 5 2 8 9 17 7 16 9 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -3 1 4 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 149 145 120 49 93 303 334 304 309 317 273 264 259 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.5 26.2 24.6 23.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 166 162 158 154 150 148 142 129 116 102 94 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 142 136 132 126 123 117 108 99 88 81 78 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -49.5 -49.2 -48.6 -49.1 -49.0 -49.2 -49.9 -50.1 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 9 6 8 5 8 5 9 4 7 700-500 MB RH 65 61 57 61 61 55 58 55 60 59 61 51 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 30 28 30 33 31 30 29 26 21 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 87 72 67 91 100 71 62 29 11 -54 -38 -49 -34 200 MB DIV 71 65 35 17 34 6 46 22 36 8 45 39 11 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 0 -3 3 1 9 1 18 10 0 9 LAND (KM) 352 355 245 159 80 -16 -49 -149 -254 -416 -655 -858 -999 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.8 27.4 27.9 28.4 29.4 30.2 31.1 32.1 33.7 36.0 38.0 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.8 87.7 88.4 89.1 90.1 90.9 91.5 91.9 92.2 92.3 91.8 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 7 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 55 36 36 54 74 24 25 23 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 20. 18. 12. 2. -7. -14. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/27/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 8( 8) 14( 21) 0( 21) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)