* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 70 74 74 75 68 63 53 45 39 35 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 70 74 54 37 30 28 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 67 70 73 57 38 30 28 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 5 4 3 11 18 12 11 14 16 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -2 0 3 0 1 -7 0 1 -2 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 119 112 55 59 149 305 283 320 279 331 305 268 265 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.0 25.6 24.1 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 158 154 150 148 145 136 123 110 98 95 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 137 132 127 123 120 113 103 94 85 81 82 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -49.2 -48.9 -48.4 -49.4 -48.9 -49.8 -50.1 -51.0 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 9 4 9 3 8 3 10 3 9 700-500 MB RH 63 59 62 61 57 57 56 58 61 66 61 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 28 32 33 30 31 27 23 20 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 74 67 94 94 85 61 49 20 -13 -64 -39 -38 -25 200 MB DIV 66 27 2 41 37 14 14 21 10 13 49 39 62 700-850 TADV 4 5 0 -4 6 4 5 12 13 8 36 0 23 LAND (KM) 350 275 169 88 11 -30 -65 -167 -311 -496 -746 -868 -911 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.8 30.6 31.5 32.8 34.6 37.0 38.3 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 87.3 88.1 88.7 89.3 90.2 90.8 91.3 91.8 91.9 91.6 90.2 87.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 7 7 5 5 6 8 10 10 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 29 45 61 39 28 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 14. 14. 15. 8. 3. -7. -15. -21. -25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/28/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/28/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)