* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 57 62 76 86 88 91 87 83 74 65 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 57 62 76 86 88 91 87 83 74 65 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 52 56 63 70 75 76 73 68 61 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 2 5 6 18 16 18 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -2 -4 -5 -2 -6 -5 0 0 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 292 336 347 43 69 36 9 51 83 75 85 115 118 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 25.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 151 150 146 142 139 138 137 132 121 97 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 73 75 76 74 72 73 72 70 70 68 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 16 16 20 22 22 26 26 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 40 46 37 29 43 40 41 42 51 48 56 57 54 200 MB DIV 100 91 56 54 70 64 58 21 32 33 38 28 41 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -7 -6 -3 -4 0 -1 2 0 -2 -3 2 LAND (KM) 507 542 601 646 694 674 586 524 465 433 464 503 666 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 17.0 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.3 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.5 112.1 112.3 112.3 112.8 114.0 115.9 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 7 6 5 5 3 4 5 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 26 24 26 29 25 18 16 15 13 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 15. 19. 19. 21. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 22. 36. 46. 48. 51. 47. 43. 34. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/28/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)