* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/28/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 65 68 68 72 68 63 54 48 43 35 29 V (KT) LAND 60 61 65 68 57 40 31 28 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 68 60 41 31 28 27 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 5 2 9 6 23 7 15 11 22 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -4 0 1 1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 118 56 73 248 309 248 297 303 307 290 259 254 267 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.2 25.8 24.4 23.2 22.7 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 154 150 150 146 139 126 112 101 93 91 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 132 127 126 122 116 106 95 87 81 79 81 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -49.3 -49.2 -48.6 -49.1 -49.3 -49.7 -50.4 -50.8 -51.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 10 6 8 4 7 4 9 5 7 1 700-500 MB RH 55 59 60 55 53 55 53 57 55 58 54 46 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 27 32 32 29 31 28 24 19 17 17 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 77 91 89 80 64 54 21 7 -71 -33 -56 -42 -43 200 MB DIV 23 9 27 33 -7 35 7 38 14 55 19 17 -12 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -3 6 7 0 12 0 15 7 4 0 -11 LAND (KM) 245 153 62 16 -22 -44 -144 -283 -480 -683 -917 -999 -955 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.0 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.3 31.2 32.5 34.3 36.3 38.6 40.1 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.4 89.0 89.6 90.1 90.8 91.3 91.8 92.3 92.2 91.3 89.3 86.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 8 10 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 52 67 53 27 25 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. -3. -6. -12. -14. -14. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 8. 12. 8. 3. -6. -12. -17. -25. -31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/28/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/28/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)