* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/28/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 56 61 73 76 74 71 67 61 56 49 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 56 61 73 76 74 71 67 61 56 49 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 58 62 62 60 57 52 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 3 3 0 8 9 11 13 14 15 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -4 -1 -4 -3 0 0 2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 5 24 49 28 268 50 92 93 59 60 84 115 120 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.0 24.2 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 150 149 145 141 136 133 129 122 105 84 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 72 74 72 73 73 72 70 69 67 65 63 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 18 19 21 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 39 39 41 50 46 48 61 75 75 78 71 68 200 MB DIV 84 54 58 64 71 42 33 53 20 24 44 20 12 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -3 4 LAND (KM) 548 583 628 668 700 646 598 578 568 561 550 647 772 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.5 111.2 112.3 113.0 113.7 114.2 115.0 116.0 117.8 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 25 27 28 20 17 17 14 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 21. 33. 36. 34. 31. 27. 21. 16. 9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/28/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)