* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/28/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 66 67 68 65 59 51 43 36 33 25 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 66 53 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 66 54 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 2 12 11 14 12 11 16 19 16 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 -2 2 -2 2 2 -1 0 -1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 9 354 336 331 281 317 275 334 291 288 266 284 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 27.7 26.4 25.1 24.2 23.4 23.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 152 150 148 145 132 117 105 99 94 93 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 129 126 124 121 110 99 89 85 81 81 82 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.6 -49.5 -49.2 -49.0 -48.8 -49.2 -48.8 -50.1 -50.1 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 6 5 10 3 9 3 9 3 6 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 55 54 55 57 61 60 64 69 68 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 33 33 32 33 30 30 25 22 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 93 87 81 71 57 48 11 -31 -75 -52 -46 -46 -34 200 MB DIV 9 26 24 -3 15 19 12 17 24 54 29 41 -9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 3 5 10 1 11 13 12 29 9 22 3 LAND (KM) 180 99 22 2 -41 -72 -207 -384 -571 -739 -913 -999 -862 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.3 29.7 30.6 31.9 33.5 35.2 36.9 38.7 39.9 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.8 89.3 89.8 90.2 90.9 91.4 91.9 92.3 91.8 90.3 88.1 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 9 8 9 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 64 53 42 27 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -5. -8. -14. -14. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 5. -1. -9. -17. -24. -27. -35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/28/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/28/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)