* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/28/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 52 57 63 69 73 75 69 66 58 51 42 V (KT) LAND 45 47 52 57 63 69 73 75 69 66 58 51 42 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 57 62 64 64 60 54 47 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 2 4 5 10 13 9 15 18 10 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -6 -4 2 0 0 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 359 360 54 152 93 102 117 69 85 97 131 125 140 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.7 24.0 22.5 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 146 144 139 135 130 126 119 102 87 75 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -50.4 -50.5 -49.6 -49.9 -49.7 -50.1 -49.7 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 73 68 68 68 62 60 55 53 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 19 21 22 23 24 26 24 25 23 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 56 59 54 56 64 85 91 93 87 77 59 200 MB DIV 42 60 77 73 52 25 8 51 24 22 27 13 0 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -1 -3 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 2 5 4 LAND (KM) 635 677 693 668 652 624 606 613 594 617 693 799 903 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.6 111.4 112.1 112.7 113.6 114.2 114.9 115.6 116.7 118.2 120.0 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 5 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 28 22 20 16 17 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 14. 12. 13. 10. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 24. 21. 13. 6. -3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/28/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)