* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/28/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 72 73 70 67 57 51 42 35 29 18 V (KT) LAND 65 68 56 47 39 31 28 27 27 27 29 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 58 49 40 31 28 27 27 27 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 16 14 9 20 11 16 12 18 21 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -4 0 4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 350 313 310 325 310 296 278 305 285 290 275 278 297 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.2 26.7 25.6 24.7 23.8 22.9 23.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 148 148 147 138 120 109 102 97 92 91 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 125 124 123 116 101 91 86 84 80 78 79 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.6 -49.7 -49.4 -48.6 -48.8 -49.2 -49.4 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 6 5 9 4 8 5 9 5 6 0 3 700-500 MB RH 59 55 52 54 56 53 56 58 67 64 59 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 31 31 34 33 29 28 23 20 17 16 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 96 80 65 57 61 14 -7 -77 -46 -78 -38 -54 -29 200 MB DIV 7 18 12 23 25 -11 37 6 52 31 53 12 -8 700-850 TADV -3 3 2 4 -1 11 -2 18 20 24 18 11 22 LAND (KM) 77 7 -9 -16 -52 -178 -349 -510 -647 -810 -999 -999 -845 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.3 31.4 33.1 34.6 35.9 37.6 39.8 41.0 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.4 89.8 90.4 90.9 91.8 92.0 92.3 92.4 91.5 89.2 87.0 84.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 11 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 66 34 15 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -12. -16. -16. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 5. 2. -8. -14. -23. -30. -36. -47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/28/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/28/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)