* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/28/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 60 63 70 75 70 64 60 51 43 34 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 60 63 70 75 70 64 60 51 43 34 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 55 58 62 63 61 57 50 43 35 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 4 3 12 10 14 9 10 12 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -3 0 -5 -1 -2 1 1 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 7 88 80 47 350 104 60 82 113 137 143 174 197 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.1 24.5 22.8 21.7 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 143 137 133 130 123 107 90 78 70 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -50.1 -50.2 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 70 69 70 65 67 63 59 58 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 20 19 22 25 23 22 22 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 51 46 45 56 61 68 73 73 74 51 39 200 MB DIV 65 87 79 70 42 15 38 0 26 19 9 -7 -16 700-850 TADV -4 0 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 1 4 6 7 9 LAND (KM) 670 713 703 658 622 631 629 615 582 641 772 872 994 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.1 22.6 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.1 111.8 112.4 112.9 114.1 114.5 115.1 116.1 117.6 119.5 121.5 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 6 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 26 19 15 17 18 12 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 11. 9. 7. 8. 6. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 18. 25. 30. 25. 19. 15. 6. -2. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/28/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)