* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 78 77 74 66 55 45 37 28 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 62 51 41 35 29 28 27 27 28 29 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 65 53 42 35 29 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 17 16 14 16 12 14 12 21 18 23 32 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 0 -3 -1 2 -2 2 0 0 3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 295 318 321 283 261 297 286 305 272 279 272 300 307 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 27.5 25.9 24.9 24.2 23.5 22.7 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 147 145 129 112 103 98 95 90 90 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 125 123 122 109 95 87 83 82 78 77 78 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.7 -49.6 -48.9 -48.6 -48.8 -48.6 -49.4 -49.9 -51.0 -50.3 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 9 10 3 9 2 10 3 7 0 3 700-500 MB RH 55 52 54 55 52 52 52 60 68 66 58 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 30 32 34 32 33 26 23 19 19 16 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 85 62 55 58 40 4 -37 -64 -53 -68 -73 -58 -34 200 MB DIV 21 3 22 34 1 21 32 -3 47 30 21 10 -5 700-850 TADV 6 3 4 0 1 8 1 11 19 9 18 7 13 LAND (KM) 19 -14 -14 -66 -117 -257 -463 -612 -726 -861 -999 -999 -901 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.4 30.8 32.1 34.0 35.5 36.7 38.1 40.0 41.2 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.2 92.6 92.6 92.2 91.2 89.6 87.6 85.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 7 7 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 7 0 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -6. -9. -10. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -5. -9. -13. -14. -17. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. -4. -15. -25. -33. -42. -51. -61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/29/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/29/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)