* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 49 51 54 56 58 64 66 68 70 68 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 49 51 54 56 58 64 66 68 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 50 53 56 60 64 68 74 79 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 12 15 13 20 16 19 14 19 22 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 -2 -1 3 -3 0 -4 -3 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 242 252 248 214 208 193 186 198 198 223 238 232 223 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 131 133 134 138 145 152 152 148 142 134 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 117 119 121 124 130 134 133 132 129 121 95 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 3 700-500 MB RH 40 40 38 38 35 35 34 39 44 41 44 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 12 12 12 11 9 9 12 12 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -32 -37 -42 -37 -51 -53 -22 -2 -25 -13 50 66 200 MB DIV -19 -10 3 -8 -7 2 4 25 -1 9 14 51 62 700-850 TADV 9 7 4 7 5 3 5 0 -1 2 -4 0 7 LAND (KM) 2255 2190 2100 1994 1888 1700 1557 1465 1466 1652 1376 1004 804 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.8 25.6 26.7 28.2 30.7 34.2 37.9 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.5 46.4 47.5 48.6 50.8 52.8 54.7 56.2 56.0 53.8 50.3 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 16 21 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 26 28 28 25 24 27 28 19 6 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 16. 18. 24. 26. 28. 30. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/29/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/29/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)