* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 62 69 68 67 56 48 40 31 23 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 62 69 68 67 56 48 40 31 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 51 53 56 56 54 49 43 36 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 1 3 2 4 16 15 13 12 8 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -4 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 2 0 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 68 157 72 11 156 59 103 111 122 127 136 139 156 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.4 24.0 22.0 21.3 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 143 141 139 136 128 121 115 102 82 74 77 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -50.9 -50.8 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 70 69 71 61 60 51 50 49 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 21 21 23 22 24 21 20 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 44 43 45 51 68 82 84 70 49 39 43 200 MB DIV 98 85 70 44 33 29 4 12 31 12 7 1 -28 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 1 2 6 2 10 LAND (KM) 675 644 609 595 588 591 568 589 670 767 828 966 1156 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.2 20.5 20.9 20.8 21.2 22.5 22.6 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.6 112.4 112.9 113.3 114.1 115.3 116.2 117.2 118.7 120.8 122.7 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 6 5 7 7 4 6 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 17 16 17 18 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 9. 5. 3. 2. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 23. 22. 11. 3. -5. -14. -22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/29/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)