* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/29/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 75 73 72 61 52 43 36 28 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 72 55 46 38 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 57 47 39 31 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 14 16 7 18 15 22 15 25 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -2 -3 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 318 334 345 266 283 287 300 275 274 280 297 308 315 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 27.7 25.9 24.4 23.4 22.7 22.5 22.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 149 132 113 100 94 90 89 91 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 126 128 125 112 96 86 81 78 77 79 79 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.6 -49.2 -48.4 -48.5 -48.4 -48.2 -49.1 -49.9 -50.2 -50.4 -51.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 9 10 6 8 5 9 5 9 2 6 1 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 56 53 54 53 58 55 50 47 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 32 33 32 31 30 24 21 18 16 16 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 64 59 67 53 29 16 -44 -30 -64 -29 -71 -25 15 200 MB DIV -13 19 38 36 5 31 19 45 42 43 0 0 36 700-850 TADV 7 8 1 2 9 0 13 4 7 6 1 4 12 LAND (KM) 14 4 -32 -50 -80 -242 -444 -657 -852 -978 -999 -999 -861 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.3 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.9 33.8 35.7 37.5 39.0 40.1 40.9 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.4 90.8 91.3 91.7 92.6 93.4 93.8 93.6 92.4 90.1 87.6 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 7 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 24 31 27 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. -9. -18. -27. -34. -42. -53. -62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/29/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/29/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)