* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL112012 08/29/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 52 53 55 60 65 68 72 71 65 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 52 53 55 60 65 68 72 71 65 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 51 54 57 61 67 74 81 81 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 10 11 14 14 14 10 14 13 20 47 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 1 1 -1 1 -3 -4 -4 -2 5 3 SHEAR DIR 259 262 243 223 216 192 201 187 225 231 230 226 220 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.4 25.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 134 135 137 141 147 148 146 143 134 113 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 119 122 123 126 129 129 128 128 121 101 84 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 8 4 2 700-500 MB RH 40 41 38 38 36 35 36 42 40 37 38 35 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 10 12 9 9 11 13 13 16 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -51 -59 -60 -57 -80 -50 -9 -16 -45 42 98 25 200 MB DIV -22 2 -8 -14 -11 12 -5 32 3 2 12 23 21 700-850 TADV 15 10 11 7 4 2 2 0 -4 -12 2 -8 -21 LAND (KM) 2251 2166 2082 1980 1880 1700 1617 1623 1735 1503 1111 856 931 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.6 26.8 28.3 30.2 33.1 36.9 40.7 44.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.9 45.8 46.7 47.8 48.9 51.2 52.9 54.1 54.6 53.4 50.4 46.4 41.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 10 9 9 12 19 24 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 28 29 26 23 19 21 27 9 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 31. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112012 KIRK 08/29/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112012 KIRK 08/29/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)