* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP092012 08/29/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 70 72 78 72 68 57 47 37 26 18 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 70 72 78 72 68 57 47 37 26 18 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 65 67 67 64 59 50 41 33 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 2 3 6 7 15 14 13 7 9 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -4 -4 -1 1 1 5 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 326 2 22 116 127 129 102 112 144 147 140 127 164 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.6 24.1 22.8 22.1 21.4 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 140 136 132 127 118 103 89 82 75 75 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -50.3 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 69 70 66 61 52 53 52 53 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 20 20 20 23 22 23 21 20 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 50 43 39 45 51 68 77 80 67 53 45 39 44 200 MB DIV 87 66 47 42 52 32 53 7 14 15 -4 -10 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 5 5 11 LAND (KM) 641 610 588 574 570 581 579 602 676 772 874 1010 1159 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.1 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.6 115.5 116.6 118.0 119.5 121.1 123.0 125.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 16 18 20 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 8. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 17. 23. 17. 13. 2. -8. -18. -29. -37. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092012 ILEANA 08/29/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)