* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092012 08/29/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 70 70 66 55 47 41 33 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 58 47 39 34 29 27 27 28 29 29 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 58 47 39 33 29 27 27 28 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 12 16 13 11 12 20 20 17 26 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 2 0 -1 0 0 -1 4 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 333 257 279 309 270 305 270 290 298 334 336 314 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.0 25.2 23.9 23.1 22.8 23.3 23.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 147 143 124 107 97 92 90 93 94 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 126 123 121 105 91 84 79 78 80 80 79 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -48.9 -48.3 -48.7 -48.8 -48.2 -48.7 -49.4 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 -50.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 9 10 6 4 9 4 11 3 9 0 6 1 700-500 MB RH 56 58 56 54 54 52 57 58 60 50 48 50 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 32 30 33 28 23 19 19 17 16 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 70 70 58 34 26 -7 -40 -39 -46 -49 -46 -34 24 200 MB DIV 25 32 20 10 15 39 8 37 29 29 -14 10 -5 700-850 TADV 7 0 1 10 15 6 7 23 10 12 6 15 16 LAND (KM) -14 -45 -52 -88 -144 -311 -534 -756 -909 -992 -990 -961 -839 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.6 31.1 32.6 34.6 36.6 38.3 39.3 39.6 40.1 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 90.5 90.9 91.2 91.6 92.0 93.1 93.7 93.6 92.7 91.0 88.5 86.5 84.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 8 9 10 10 8 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 31 27 27 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -4. -9. -14. -14. -17. -17. -21. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -15. -23. -29. -37. -46. -58. -69. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092012 ISAAC 08/29/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092012 ISAAC 08/29/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)